The shop’s own costs were measured; the company’s profit was not claimed

The situation

A small online retailer shipping heavy parcels, selling through paid search, paid social and price-comparison sites. The question: when will the webshop pay its own way?

What it looked like

The owners' understanding was that one price-comparison site had been cancelled. The ad account credited itself with almost as many purchases as the shop received in total.

What was actually true

Two questions had been treated as one. Whether the webshop covers its own costs could be measured: in January it nearly did; by July it was well short, while revenue grew by about a fifth. The largest part of the deterioration was courier delivery, up by about half per order in one step in March. Whether the company makes a profit could not be answered: the books record stock when bought, not when sold, so part of a monthly loss is goods on the shelf. The order data also contradicted the channel account: the cancelled site was still bringing orders in early September, and a site that had been a leading source the autumn before had fallen to zero, unmentioned.

How we found it

The ledger month by month, the courier contracts, and orders by channel. Our first calculation subtracted delivery cost twice, doubling the gap. We then attributed the whole delivery rise to a carrier price change; when tested, the parcel-count field proved blank on most orders. We withdrew the split, kept only the total, and our own break-even date moved later.

What changed

Nothing in the client’s systems. One list of claims, each marked by how firmly it is known, produced two emails: a shorter one, and a full one held back.

Where it ended

The shorter email was sent; no response is recorded. Courier invoices, the cancelled site’s real stop date and stock values are outstanding.

What we did not claim

A company profit figure or a single break-even date. A cause for the delivery rise: carrier price, split parcels and surcharges cannot be told apart, so the recoverable part is a range starting at zero. And that the cancelled site had absorbed the dead one’s orders: they moved together, nothing more.

Why it matters beyond this case

Here is what you say you are, and here is what your data says you are.

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